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It’s Premature To Predict A Crisis In US-Pakistan Relations Over Islamabad’s ICBM Program

By Editor on 4th July 2025 • ( 0 )

It’s Premature To Predict A Crisis In US-Pakistan Relations Over Islamabad’s ICBM Program

Economic pressure, not military force, is a much more realistic means for the US to resolve this issue.

Foreign Affairs’ recent article about “How to Survive the New Nuclear Age” contained some interesting information about Pakistan. Citing US intelligence sources, the authors claimed that “Washington will have no choice but to treat the country as a nuclear adversary” if it develops ICBMs like the Biden Administration sanctioned it for allegedly pursuing in late December. That’s because “no other country with ICBMs that can target the United States is considered a friend.”

According to their assessment, “In acquiring such a capability, Pakistan might be seeking to deter the United States from either trying to eliminate its arsenal in a preventive attack or intervening on India’s behalf in a future Indian-Pakistani conflict.” It was written here in late December, however, that “Pakistan either plans to sell these missiles to others, one day threaten the US, or it’s gambling that it could negotiate an end to this program in exchange for much more conventional military aid from America.”

All three motivations for Pakistan’s alleged ICBM program, which goes beyond its military needs to deter what it considers to be the existential threat posed by India, are credible. It’s therefore premature to predict a crisis in US-Pakistani relations over this issue, though one can’t be ruled out either. In any case, even if a crisis erupts, it’s unlikely to involve the US and/or Israel bombing Pakistan like they just bombed Iran. Before moving on, it’s crucial to fact-check a viral video from 2011 that’s once again circulating.

The clip is of Bibi talking about the threat that Pakistan’s nukes pose, but it’s deceptively edited to omit him clarifying that this threat only concerns a Taliban takeover of the country. This link here contains the full footage debunking the false narrative pushed by the aforesaid clip implying that Israel and/or the US might set their sights on denuclearizing Pakistan after Iran. Unlike Iran, Pakistan actually has nukes, and it could target Israel, regional US bases, and/or the US’ Indian partner with them in that scenario.

For this reason, even in the event of a US-Pakistani crisis over its alleged ICBM program, economic tools are much more likely to be employed than military ones. Speculative regime change plots can also probably be ruled out since it’s the military, not the civilian government, that’s always called the shots in Pakistan. This same military sincerely believes that their country’s nukes are the only reason why India hasn’t wiped them off the map so it therefore won’t give them up under any circumstances.

Moreover, the argument can be made that the US doesn’t want them to denuclearize since these arms enable the US to contain India by proxy via Pakistan, which is still one of the US’ “Major Non-NATO Allies” in spite of its strategic partnership and much closer military ties with China. Pakistan doesn’t need ICBMs to deter, threaten, or contain India (depending on one’s perspective), however, so it’s much more likely to give this program up for financial and/or military aid from the US before any real crisis erupts.

MAGA thought leader Steve Bannon has the right to be concerned about Foreign Affairs’ report amplifying the US Intelligence Community’s alleged fears of Pakistan’s ICBM program right after the US brokered the Iranian-Israeli ceasefire since it does indeed seem to be the “same deep state script”. Even so, it’s premature to jump to conclusions since this might just be a tactic by the Pakistani military to squeeze more aid from the US, which it’s done before via different means so this isn’t unprecedented.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.