Steel, Rail, And Oil: The Roadmap For A New Era In Russia-Pakistan Ties

By Andrew Korybko

For as promising as the opportunities that he discussed are, the US still wields a de facto veto over “Major Non-NATO Ally” Pakistan’s cooperation with Russia, so there might be limits to how far this realistically expands despite his optimism.

Russian Ambassador to Pakistan Albert Khorev spoke to TASS in early February on the subject of bilateral ties ahead of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Russia from 3-5 March. They didn’t publish his remarks as a single interview, however, but as five separate news items that can be read here, here, here, here, and here. They’ll now be summarized, albeit in a different sequence than they were published in order to more seamlessly facilitate the transition between his points.

Khorev declared Russia’s intent in “moving toward the practical implementation of large-scale joint projects, such as the revival of the Karachi Metallurgical Plant, the launch of rail transport between Russia and Pakistan, cooperation in hydropower, and the creation of joint production facilities for pharmaceuticals, including insulin.” Oil exploration and production are other promising fields, and the completion of work on all this is expected by the next meeting of the intergovernmental commission.

Russia is interested in expanding the scope of cooperation beyond the aforesaid sectors to include “improving transport connectivity, tourism, and information and communications technology.” The current priorities “include contacts in regional security and the fight against international terrorism, as well as coordinating efforts at multilateral forums, primarily the UN and the SCO.” There are also “good prospects for developing ties between the cities and regions of the two countries”.

On the institutional level, Khorev envisages intensifying cooperation with Pakistan in the SCO on anti-terrorism, regional connectivity, logistics, and industry and expanding cooperation to include “digital finance, fintech innovations, and green finance instruments.” He also declared Russia’s support for Pakistan’s bid to join BRICS’ New Development Bank, which he said would bring it closer to the group, though left unmentioned is the high likelihood of India vetoing this due to their well-known tensions.

Reflecting on everything, Khorev is quite upbeat about the state and future of Russian-Pakistani ties, which is natural due to him being the ambassador, but he might be even more optimistic than usual against the backdrop of credible concern that India will reduce its Russian oil imports under US pressure. The Pakistani market can never replace India’s no matter what the export may be, but tangible progress on entering the former could partially compensate for lost access to the latter, though there’s a catch.

“Major Non-NATO Ally” Pakistan voluntarily re-subordinated itself to the US after April 2022’s post-modern coup against former multipolar Prime Minister Imran Khan, and despite its displeasure with the Indo-US trade deal, Pakistan is unlikely to defy the US on any significant deals with Russia. For that reason, the US will likely retain its de facto veto on major aspects of Russian-Pakistani cooperation, which is responsible for why nothing has yet to come from their years-long oil and gas talks.

Nevertheless, Russia will still continue to explore all possible opportunities for cooperating with Pakistan since its diplomatic school doesn’t believe in being the first to abandon such prospects, which is proven by it still keeping the door open to the US and EU in spite of them arming Ukraine to kill Russians. This explains Khorev’s eagerness to expand all economic and other forms of cooperation with Pakistan, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Russia from 3-5 March provides the perfect chance to do so.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

Categories: Analysis, Economy, International Affairs

Tags: BRICS, Economy, India, NATO, oil production, Pakistan, Russia, SCO, USA