Home › Analysis › Armenia’s Ultimatum Over Russian Gas Prices Amounts To A National Suicide Threat

Armenia’s Ultimatum Over Russian Gas Prices Amounts To A National Suicide Threat

By Editor on 9th April 2026 • ( 0 )

Armenia’s Ultimatum Over Russian Gas Prices Amounts To A National Suicide Threat

Leaving the CSTO and the EAEU before membership in NATO and the EU is assured would amount to national suicide since it could embolden Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye to invade and would crush Armenia’s economy.

Armenian Parliamentary Speaker Alen Simonyan warned Russia that his country will withdraw from both the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in which its membership is now suspended by choice and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) if gas prices are raised. This followed Putin reminding Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during last week’s meeting at the Kremlin of how generously Russia subsidizes its wayward ally’s energy costs among the many other benefits that have been bestowed upon it.

Right after their meeting, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk gave an interview to TASS in which he ominously warned that “one comes to the conclusion that our colleagues are very close to the point where we will have to restructure our economic relations with this country.” The larger context concerns Armenia’s pro-Western pivot under Pashinyan, which is now taking the form of trying to join the EU despite his country’s membership in the EAEU, which Putin reminded him is incompatible.

Prior to this recent policy, Armenia conspired with Azerbaijan to squeeze Russia out of the regional economic corridor that Putin himself proposed in late 2020 as part of their ceasefire, replacing it with the US and renaming it the “Trump Corridor for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). TRIPP will expand Western – including NATO – influence along Russia’s entire southern periphery in the South Caucasus, Caspian Sea, and Central Asia. Here are three background briefings summarizing the above:

* 3 April: “Korybko To Bordachev: The West Is Encircling Russia In The South Caucasus & Central Asia”

* 4 April: “The Moment Of Truth Is Arriving In Russian-Armenian Relations”

* 5 April: “A Top Russian Official Rang The Alarm About Deteriorating Relations With Armenia”

These preexisting tensions are rapidly coming to a head due to Armenia’s next parliamentary elections in June. If Pashinyan’s party wins and he remains as Prime Minister, then he’ll likely oversee the irreversible completion of Armenia’s pro-Western pivot, which could culminate in dumping the CSTO for NATO and the EAEU for the EU exactly as Simonyan recently threatened if Russian gas prices rise. Joining both would still take time, however, though Armenia could still host US troops even without joining NATO.

Nevertheless, leaving the CSTO and the EAEU before membership in NATO and the EU is assured would amount to national suicide since it could embolden Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye to invade and would crush Armenia’s economy, the latter through sky-high gas prices and losing one of its top markets. In fact, Armenia needs Russia much more than the inverse, but that’s not to say that Armenia is irrelevant for Russia since Armenian-transiting TRIPP exposes Russia to an unprecedented Western encirclement.

With this in mind, only the US, Turkiye, and Azerbaijan would benefit from Armenia committing national suicide if gas prices are raised as a form of pressure for decelerating and ideally reversing Pashinyan’s pro-Western pivot before the elections or after them as a warning if he wins. The solution is to abandon Armenia’s pro-Western pivot and let Russia guard and inspect cargo moving across TRIPP like was agreed to in late 2020, but it’s doubtful that Pashinyan would agree to this, so the worst might be yet to come.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.