The scandal over Azerbaijan’s demolition of a monument to Ivan Aivazovsky in the former “Nagorno-Karabakh” region dramatically escalated after Baku threatened to shutter Russian-language institutions in the country in response to Moscow’s sharp reaction to this move.

Russian-Azerbaijani relations have been going downhill over the past month, which readers can learn more about here, here, and here, with the latest tensions surprisingly being over a famous 19^th-century Russian painter of ethnic Armenian origin, Ivan Aivazovsky (baptized as Hovhannes Aivazian). Azerbaijan just demolished a monument to him in Khankendi, the self-proclaimed capital of the now-defunct separatist entity of “Artsakh” that local Armenians called “Stepanakert”, which was erected in 2021.

Publicly financed TASS first reported that this happened in “Stepanakert” before changing the location to “Nagorno-Karabakh”, the geographic description of which is no longer used by Baku. Russian Special Presidential Envoy on International Cultural Cooperation Mikhail Shvydkoy then lamented that “The issue, I am sure, would have been resolved in a civilized manner [had Russia been informed in advance], for example by moving it to Russian soil. Instead, it is a demonstrative, unfriendly action against Russia.”

Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman Aykhan Hajizada angrily responded to this by condemning TASS’ initial use of “Stepanakert”, defending the removal of Aivazovsky’s monument on the grounds that it was erected on his country’s territory during the brief Russian peacekeeper period without Baku’s consent, and ominously threatening to shutter Russian-language theaters, schools, and publications in Azerbaijan if high-ranking Russian officials’ “anti-Azerbaijani actions and statements continue”. Here’s what he said:

“While there are Russian-language theaters, schools, and publications in Azerbaijan, there are no Azerbaijani-language theaters, schools, newspapers, or magazines in Russia. Despite this disparity, we do not make allegations about the ‘cancellation’ of Azerbaijani culture in Russia. However, high-ranking Russian officials should be aware that if their anti-Azerbaijani actions and statements continue, this disparity in cultural representation may be addressed and adjusted by Azerbaijan accordingly.”

This represents a very serious escalation from Russia’s perspective that risks turning their tensions over the dismantlement of Aivazovsky’s monument into a full-blown political crisis from which bilateral relations might never recover if Azerbaijan goes through with what Hajizada just threatened. After all, he could have just condemned TASS’ initial word choice and defended his government’s actions, which would have been diplomatically acceptable even if observers disagreed with the points that he made.

It would have still been scandalous that he declined to address why Russia wasn’t informed of the monument’s demolition in advance, which could have led to the issue being “resolved in a civilized manner” per Shvydkoy, but they could have still more easily overcome this in that case. Now that the shuttering of Russian-language institutions is being threatened, however, Russian policymakers will worry whether Azerbaijan is going down Ukraine’s path like RT chief Margarita Simonyan hinted on X.

Putin praised Ilham Aliyev for supporting ethnic Russians and the Russian language in Azerbaijan during their Baku Summit in August 2024, yet now his counterpart is evidently considering a policy reversal that could lead to the “Ukrainization” of Azerbaijan as the Kremlin would certainly see it. If Hajizada’s threat isn’t soon formally rescinded, then Russia might reverse its policy of trying to patch up their problems, which could at the very least see Azerbaijan designated as an “unfriendly country” with all that entails.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

7 Courses in 1 – Diploma in Business Management