What’s Really Behind The Latest Border Tensions Between Belarus And Lithuania?

By Andrew Korybko

It’s possible that this is a “plausibly deniable” powerplay by Belarus as part of the “big deal” that it’s negotiating with the US.

Lithuania closed its border with Belarus till the end of November in response to a wave of cigarette smuggling balloons from there leading to a several temporary closures of the Vilnius Airport. For those who aren’t aware, the capital is located in close proximity to the border. Lithuania also said that it’ll now shoot down those balloons and blamed the Belarusian KGB for these “hybrid attacks”. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko predictably denied his government’s involvement in these incidents.

He also speculated that this is just a “crazy gamble” by Lithuania designed to impede the visit of foreign experts to the 3^rd Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security, while his Foreign Ministry posited that it might even be profit-driven in the sense of wanting to secure more EU funds for border security. That’s much more plausible than the first claim. Whatever Lithuania’s reasons for closing the border might really be, it’s a fact that the cigarette smuggling balloons from Belarus served as the pretext.

Another relevant point is that Belarus claimed in spring 2024 to have thwarted drone attacks from Lithuania, who it’s accused of harbouring aggressive intentions against it together with Poland, so Belarus clearly has control over its borders and closely monitors them for national security reasons. Accordingly, Poland’s long-standing claim that Belarus has weaponized illegal immigration processes against it and Lithuania’s latest one that it’s weaponizing cigarette smuggling balloons might have some truth to them.

It was explained here that Belarus might be doing the first as an asymmetrical response to Poland’s support for 2020’s failed Colour Revolution, with Lithuania’s hosting of self-proclaimed Belarusian leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya arguably playing a role in the second, both of which are “plausibly deniable”. To elaborate on the latter, “Some Lithuanians Are Turning Against The Pro-Western Belarusian Diaspora” due to these newcomers’ incompatible nationalist narratives, which deeply offend some of the locals.

It was then recently revealed that Tikhanovskaya took thousands of euros from the KGB as “a payoff for publicly pleading with protesters to stop their action in the streets before she fled the country.” Other “Leaks expose collapse of EU/US-backed Belarusian ‘opposition’” as documented by The Grayzone in the preceding report, with additional insight into this trend being shared here. All of this favours Belarus so the question arises of why its KGB would let these balloons cause a border crisis at this particular time.

While it can’t be known for sure, perhaps Belarus wants to coerce Lithuania into expelling Tikhanovskaya after recently downgrading her security amidst the domestic scandal that her supporters have caused, which could be part of the “big deal” that Lukashenko is negotiating with the US. If Lithuania complies with this implied demand, then Belarus could put an end to these balloons on the public pretext of cracking down on cross-border smuggling, the quid pro quo of which might be mediated by the US.

With this in mind, it’s therefore possible that this is a “plausibly deniable” powerplay by Belarus, but it’s unclear if it’s coordinated with Russia given Lukashenko’s years-long history of controversial decisions that he’s made independently of Putin (and sometimes at Russia’s expense). Even if his speculative goal isn’t achieved, the latest Belarusian-Lithuanian border tensions likely won’t spiral out of control, at worst simply becoming the “new normal” just like the migrant-instigated Belarusian-Polish border tensions.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

Categories: Analysis, Geopolitics, International Affairs

Tags: Belarus, EU, Europe, Geopolitics, KGB, Lithuania, Russia, USA