The US-hosted Talks Between Azerbaijan And Armenia Won’t End The Karabakh Conflict

The US-hosted Talks Between Azerbaijan And Armenia Won’t End The Karabakh Conflict

By Andrew Korybko

I’m sharing the English-language comments that I gave to Yeni Sabah’s Rafi Muslumov, which were first published in Azerbaijani under the title “ABŞ Ermənistanı yola gətirir: Rusiya masadan qovulur?”

No surprises are expected from the US-hosted talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but the fact that they’re proceeding in the first place shows both sides’ interest in exploring other pathways towards peace than the traditional Minsk format and the recent Moscow one of the past 2,5 years.

Accordingly, the Kremlin isn’t likely to approve of its partners seeking Washington’s support, but it probably also won’t signal its displeasure too directly or publicly out of concern that doing so might be misinterpreted by some as condescending.

The reason why peace hasn’t yet been achieved is entirely due to Armenia’s refusal to completely withdrawal from Azerbaijan’s universally recognized territory in accordance with the Moscow-mediated ceasefire from November 2022.

Whatever efforts can help convince it to finally do so, including those from the US which hosts one of the world’s most hyper-nationalist Armenian diaspora communities, should be welcomed by everyone.

That said, it’s precisely because of the warmongering influence that this same community has exerted over the Armenian state for years already that nobody should get their hopes up about a breakthrough.

The US Government would have to change its approach towards Armenia for any progress to be made, though it’s possible that Washington could dangle certain carrots to convince Yerevan to make tangible moves towards peace, but those would likely be anti-Russian in nature and could cause a whole other set of problems in the long run if they’re agreed to.

In any case, it’s premature to speculate too much about this, with it being enough just to take note of the optics surrounding the US hosting the latest talks between these two countries and remembering the role that its Armenian diaspora has played in perpetuating this conflict.

The interview was first published in Azerbaijani here.  


Categories: Geopolitics, International Affairs

Tags: , , ,

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