Home › Analysis › TRIPP Alone Should Change Russia’s Southern “Near Abroad” Strategy

TRIPP Alone Should Change Russia’s Southern “Near Abroad” Strategy

By Editor on 7th March 2026 • ( 0 )

TRIPP Alone Should Change Russia’s Southern “Near Abroad” Strategy

He’s one of Russia’s top experts, yet his latest Valdai report on this subject didn’t even make passive mention of Trump 2.0’s flagship megaproject that’s expected to expand Western – including NATO – influence throughout the South Caucasus and Central Asia, which suggests that he’s oblivious of it.

Timofei Bordachev is one of Russia’s top experts. Not only is he a Programme Director at the Valdai Club, Russia’s main think tank which hosts Putin for a Q&A at its annual meeting every fall, but his work is also regularly translated and republished by RT. One his latest such ones on their site contrasts the fates of Mexico vis-à-vis the US with the South Caucasus’ and Central Asia’s vis-à-vis Russia to argue that Russia treats its “Near Abroad”, which is a euphemism for its “sphere of influence”, better than the US does.

The purpose was to challenge those in Russia who’ve “argued that the Central Asian republics receive too much from Russia while offering little in return”, ergo why “Moscow should adopt a more pragmatic, even harsher, approach toward its southern neighbours. Something akin to the way the United States has treated Central America for the past two centuries…Critics argue that these states play a ‘multi-vector’ game, extracting benefits from Russia while hedging politically and offering little in return.”

Bordachev himself published a piece in mid-February asking, “Towards Genuine Multi-Vector Alignment?”, which was analysed here as being most relevant to Azerbaijan since the form that its aforesaid policy takes poses a serious challenge to Russia. In particular, its armed forces conformed to NATO standards in November, and last August’s “Trump Route for International Peace & Prosperity” (TRIPP) has the dual role of expanding Western influence into the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

This arguably emboldened Kazakhstan to declare a month later in December that it’ll begin producing NATO-standard shells, thus possibly placing it on an irreversible collision course with Russia that was analysed here. Kazakhstan’s TRIPP-emboldened challenge to Russian interests was then followed up on here last month when analysing why its president is suspiciously going overboard trying to please Trump. Here are five background briefings about all the ways in which TRIPP threatens Russia’s national security:

* 9 August 2025: “The TRIPP Corridor Threatens To Undermine Russia’s Broader Regional Position”

* 10 December 2025: “How Can The US Manage Turkish-Russian Tensions In The South Caucasus & Central Asia?”

* 11 February 2026: “Vance’s Trip To The South Caucasus Tightens The West’s Encirclement Of Russia”

* 12 February 2026: “Armenia’s Pro-American Pivot Might Entail Radical Socio-Cultural Costs”

* 13 February 2026: “The US-Azerbaijani Strategic Partnership Could Destabilize Russia’s Southern Periphery”

Even if one disagrees with the extent to which TRIPP threatens Russia’s national security, there’s no doubt that this megaproject will enable the expansion of Western influence – including NATO influence – along its entire southern periphery and is a major part of Trump 2.0’s foreign policy. At the very least, one would think that it would have been at least passively referenced in Bordachev’s latest Valdai report about Russia’s “Near Abroad”, which extensively covered its partners to the south.

As surreal as it may sound, this report that was published between Bordachev’s previously mentioned pieces about multi-vector alignment and Mexico didn’t make any mention whatsoever to TRIPP, which one can easily confirm by doing a CTRL+F search for “Trump” and “TRIPP”. Given that he’s surprisingly oblivious of TRIPP, thus also of Trump 2.0’s foreign policy towards Russia’s entire southern periphery by extrapolation, it therefore makes sense why he challenged critics of Russia’s policy there.

He accordingly doesn’t assess there to be any latent national security challenges to Russia along that front, but he’s mistaken as was explained throughout this analysis. As one of Russia’s brightest minds, his work is presumably relied upon to a degree by officials when formulating policy, which is why it’s crucial for him to acknowledge TRIPP and the ways in which it threatens Russian national security without delay. TRIPP alone should change Russia’s southern “Near Abroad” strategy and hopefully he’ll soon agree.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.