Modi takes his madman theory to the next level: Beating the war drums!
By Ali Hassnain
As His Highness, the self-styled supreme leader of SAARC could not deliver the unrealistic promises he made during the elections, he has decided to fudge the figures, change the parameters GDP is calculated on and boom, its 7.5% growth instead of some estimated 5 % (give or take). He has decided not to concentrate on poverty in India or lack of access to potable water, food and well, toilets of course. If that alone was not enough, BJP government has banned beef in many states and banned eggs in free food served to poor school going children in many states including Madhya Pradesh. His party’s people are saying that the benefits of eggs are exaggerated and there are cheaper sources of protein. Absurd really as they have no problem with exporting beef.
He is trying to change the system of ration cards in India by which poor people get subsidized food and fuel used for cooking. The system he plans to replace it with has disaster written all over it. It includes encouraging people to open bank accounts and a whole new Pandora’s Box.
Bharat sarkaar has paid no attention to problem faced by Indian women. Workplace harassment, rape prevention, putting and changing how Indians see women is apparently not on their list.
China Pakistan Economic Corridor is getting on his nerves. He even went to China to confront them. After (probably) getting an earful he went to South Korea where expatriate Indians welcomed him. Then in an unexpected move he went to Mongolia promising them 2 Billion dollars of aid (like money is dropping out of India’s pocket). Mongolia is a country of some 3 million with two giant neighbours, Russia and China. The purpose of this exercise was to convince his BJP supporters that he is encircling China. I am unable to interpret it but he became the first Indian PM to visit Mongolia, called them his “spiritual neighbours”, again making no sense except perhaps Mughals had Mongol blood. Now Seychelles, Mauritius and Mongolia are his neighbours, is it just me or this guy is losing his marbles.
India is a democracy, right? So what? Their electricity demand is alarmingly stagnant and most of the country does not have the luxury of access to electricity, their problem right?
Then he went to Bangladesh talking about how Indians fought along with Mukti Bahini, destabilized and ultimately invaded East Pakistan. It is true that they did this crime, however in his war mongering he forgot the human right abuses, how India interfered in East Pakistan with the help of Soviets. To top that he promised them aid too. We still have the Zamzama cannon mounted on Mall Road Lahore which was used by Ahmad Shah Abdali in the third battle of Panipat and countless relics reminding us of the thousand years Muslim rule in India.
As Mr.Ahmad Raza Kasuri rightly pointed out in a ‘Time Now’ talk show “We built Delhi, British built New Delhi, where is your Delhi?” We have our stamp on every brick of India, you proudly sell Lal Qila and Taj Mahal, we built them.
In a move best understood by him and his team, he recently bombed Myanmar or Burma (in a remote Jungle) claiming there were terror hideouts there. To make the situation even more comical, his minister claimed it was actually a warning to Pakistan.
Pakistan and Myanmar! Where is the comparison? Seriously? I wouldn’t be surprised if his NSA advisor Ajit Doval would advise him to bomb Bhutan next to scare Pakistan.
I wonder if they are mad enough to try bombing China or Pakistan’s border areas (not really).
Don’t be surprised if Indian economy stalls as local rebellions are a headache to him. Indian economy is built on exploitation of poor, most of which have no access to basic amenities like potable water, enough food, health care or even toilets. His coalition government is unable to keep cell phones functional in Kashmir. They have accused ISI of using their own cell phone towers to create a network of their own. Naxals are all geared up and yet Indian media is singing hymns in his honor towing official policy.
During the last year Pakistan has almost dismantled their proxies in Pakistan and continues to work on remaining ones. Shady NGOs are under scrutiny and would be banned. India’s Afghan policy is in shambles. Her alliance with Iran is crumbling. Yesterday Pakistan dispatched a goods train to Iran, first in five years, and the plan is to import oil through railway which is to be increased eventually. China can buy Iranian oil through CPEC and a possible pipeline (eventually). The Chabahar port is more of a mirage at this stage and I have my doubts if India would have investment to spare when the time comes. India itself needs oil and gas through Iranian pipeline which Modi Sarkar would not allow (Neither will Pakistan).
With CPEC, Pakistan would get a lot of room to manoeuvre. Looking at the Indian hardware, training, alliances and morale, it is highly unlikely India would impose a limited war. If they do, it would be a disaster for India. We are very well equipped for a limited war. For example we can launch an intense attack on Akhnur (like Operation Grand Slam in 1965), with the weaponry we have. Kashmir would be cut off from India the same day and a Pandora’s Box would open. You need 5-1 ratio to win against an opponent who is defending; it’s a rule of the thumb. For example in 1971 India had 11-1 numerical superiority. India can get nowhere near 5-1 superiority in a limited war and on the contrary we can use tactics used in asymmetrical warfare in Kashmir and bring India to her knees.
The Russians are keen to improve ties with Pakistan, however cautious. Putin is sending his front men, henchmen and senior officers but junior to him to Pakistan. Russian Naval Chief recently visited here for the first time. Visit of the President of Belarus was not covered well in Pakistani media but the President of Belarus is very close to Putin, they even call him the Last Dictator of Europe. Eventually Putin’s visit might be on the cards.
Iran is stuck with fighting ISIS, supporting Syria and the financial burden alone is mammoth. Same is the case with Syria, unless something new comes up it’s a stalemate. Iran is spending billions of dollars despite sanctions and at this point Iraqi Army is good as non-existent considering their performance in Ramadi. The Chabahar port and Indian investment is a mistake and Iran can be engaged diplomatically to let go of this Project. After the nuclear deal, if there is one, Iran would be defenseless as never before and would need reliable allies. Why would they mind selling their oil to China through CPEC?
US at this stage needs a stable Pakistan for multiple reasons and therefore continues some support. US has a weak president but the next one wouldn’t be weak whether it’s Hillary or Jeb Bush.
At this stage I don’t think Iran or Saudi Arabia would want to create problems for Pakistan. Saudi Arabia is actually in a bad situation diplomatically and militarily at least till the next US president comes in. We can use this opportunity to establish rail link to Turkey; fix our economy and internal issues.
Real threats to Pakistan are from within, mainly local traitors and corruption. We need to work on our internal issues from Waris Mir underpass (an underpass in Lahore named after a traitor) and pro Indian lobbies who get their funding from India. Not to forget people that proudly follow Gandhi and call partition the biggest blunder of human history, people who try to divide Pakistan on ethnic, linguistic and sectarian lines.
In the meantime Pakistan Army is rapidly modernizing and preparing for any external and internal threat. Once CPEC is complete, which would be soon, it would be a different ballgame altogether. In medium or long term it might be a deterrent to disturbances in the South China Sea.
I fail to understand though why National Cadet Corps was abruptly discontinued in Pakistan. Most Pakistanis know their weapons, however we lack the training to properly maintain them in trench warfare or a warlike situation and what to do in case of a national crisis. Students must know basic self-defense and N.C.C must be restored.
The great question is that where is all this war hysteria headed. Bluntly put, nowhere! There is an ancient Greek saying “Nothing Comes from Nothing”. That is precisely what would happen with Modi’s Madman theory. It would wreck the Indian foreign and domestic policy, probably hide their decaying economy and give him a little more time. The upcoming drought in India about which experts have repeatedly warned Bharat Sarkar has been largely ignored.
India is dying, Modi’s rhetoric and gimmicks with figures cannot feed the hungry. It can give the warmongers like Bajrang Dal a few more months to cheer, perhaps two years at best. But in the end series of bluffs by him and his team would cause India to collapse. India should learn from Chanakya doctrine and live to fight another day, however with that not happening. We would see deprived Indians with a bit of help turning on their Brahmin masters. Mad Men cannot win wars, however to lose a war it doesn’t take much.