Turkiye Accurately Assessed That The Ukrainian Conflict Is At A Stalemate

Turkiye Accurately Assessed That The Ukrainian Conflict Is At A Stalemate

By Andrew Korybko

There’s no denying the accuracy of the official assessment shared by Turkish President Erdogan’s foreign policy advisor Ibrahim Kalin that the Ukrainian Conflict has reached a stalemate, which is “politically incorrect” to talk about since it contradicts the Golden Billion’s “official narrative” and thus proves how futile further arms shipments are. The fact of the matter is that Russia has successfully held its own throughout the course of its nearly year-long special operation in the face of slightly less than three dozen of its NATO opponents fighting it by proxy there.


The US-led West’s Golden Billion and its proxies in Kiev continue to claim that they’re on the brink of winning the Ukrainian Conflict, yet this assessment was just officially contradicted by Turkish President Erdogan’s foreign policy advisor Ibrahim Kalin. According to him, “Neither party is in a position to win the war militarily, on the ground”, ergo why Ankara proposed helping them negotiate “local ceasefires and small localised de-escalations” with a view towards ultimately reviving last spring’s peace process.

For as well-intended as this suggestion may be, it’s unlikely to bear any fruit considering that “Kiev Rejected Russia’s Orthodox Christmas Truce On False Pretexts” earlier this month. Furthermore, that former Soviet Republic’s Western overlords plan to continue exploiting it as their de facto New Cold War bloc’s proxies for fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian in a desperate attempt to delay the decline of the US’ unipolar hegemony. Nobody should therefore get their hopes up about a series of ceasefires.

Nevertheless, there’s also no denying the accuracy of Kalin’s assessment that the Ukrainian Conflict has reached a stalemate, which is “politically incorrect” to talk about since it contradicts the Golden Billion’s “official narrative” and thus proves how futile further arms shipments are. The fact of the matter is that Russia has successfully held its own throughout the course of its nearly year-long special operation in the face of slightly less than three dozen of its NATO opponents fighting it by proxy there.

That’s beyond impressive even if one acknowledges the possibility that it’s received some clandestine military support from Iran and possibly also North Korea, which would have in any case paled in comparison to that which Kiev has received from NATO and its partners across the world. For Russia to have brought the conflict to a stalemate in spite of the military odds being drastically aligned against it this entire time speaks both to the professionalism of its forces as well as its foes’ lack thereof.

With this objectively existing and easily verifiable reality in mind, which was just extended credence by the top foreign policy advisor to the same leader who commands NATO’s second-largest military, it can therefore be concluded that further arms shipments to Kiev won’t make much of a difference. All that such moves will do is artificially perpetuate the conflict at the cost of countless more lives, including those civilians that are caught in the crossfire upon Kiev exploiting them as human shields like usual.

Those top Ukrainian and former US officials who’ve been lobbying for even more military aid and thus implying that the approximately $100 billion that Kiev already received isn’t enough are likely connected in one way or another to the military-industrial complex (MIC) and thus stand to profit from such shipments. The problem is that Biden’s Naval chief just confirmed his country’s MIC crisis whereby it might soon be forced to choose between meeting its own minimum national security needs or Kiev’s.

Soledar’s liberation late last week could in theory serve as the pretext for the US to coerce Kiev into freezing the LOC via Turkish mediation in order to avert more inevitable on-the-ground losses in the coming future, but the powerful anti-Russian lobby will likely succeed in suppressing such pragmatic voices and thus artificially perpetuate the conflict due to their financial and ideological stakes in that outcome. Be that as it may, their efforts aren’t expected to resolve the present stalemate.

That almost certainly being the case, then “Russia Will Still Strategically Win Even In The Scenario Of A Military Stalemate In Ukraine” since the larger dynamics of the global systemic transition to multiplexity are in its favour and not the Golden Billion’s. The longer that Moscow holds its own, the faster that the aforesaid transition will accelerate towards its final form of complex multipolarity, which will result in a more democratic, equal, just, and predictable world order wherein the West’s influence is weakened.

Turkiye wisely foresaw this outcome long ago and that’s why it’s practiced such a pragmatic policy towards this proxy war by attempting to balance between the two conflicting sides, which also includes their partners by obvious extension. While nowhere near as perfect as India’s multi-alignment, which set the global standard in this respect, it’s still worthy of praise when remembering that this geostrategically positioned state is formally a NATO member and commands its second-largest military.

This explains Kalin’s assessment that the Ukrainian Conflict is at a stalemate, which can be interpreted as Turkiye’s official conclusion by dint of his position as President Erdogan’s foreign policy advisor. Looking forward, Turkiye will continue multi-aligning between all pertinent players in this proxy war, which is expected to solidify its position as an increasingly independent pole of influence in the emerging Multipolar World Order much more so than having any tangible effect in brokering peace.


Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.


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Categories: Geopolitics, International Affairs

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